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1)
Message boards :
Cafe CPDN :
So long, and thanks for all the crunching :)
(Message 52632)
Posted 24 Sep 2015 by  Hannah Rowlands
Post: Thank you for the lovely responses, it's great to know I've helped you feel more connected to the project! Best wishes, and keep crunching, Cheers, Hannah |
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2)
Message boards :
Cafe CPDN :
So long, and thanks for all the crunching :)
(Message 52603)
Posted 22 Sep 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Dear all, I wanted to let you know I'll be leaving climateprediction.net project as Communications Officer at the end of September, as my contract has come to an end. It's been really great working on the project, and seeing the enthusiasm and commitment from our volunteers - we really couldn't do the research without you, thank you! I'm sure CPDN will go from strength to strength, so please keep crunching models for us! Best wishes, Hannah |
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3)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
New "Recent Submissions" list on website
(Message 52602)
Posted 22 Sep 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Hi all, Just to let you know that we've put a new cool thing on the front page of the website that lists the most recent batch submissions, with a short description from the scientist about which experiment they're for - you can see it on the righthand side of the front page: http://www.climateprediction.net/ We hope this will be useful for you to know to know a bit more about what's going on, and so you can see if there haven't been any recent submissions etc. We'll be adding links to the relevant project page shortly... Cheers, Hannah |
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4)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Which experiment is this work unit for?
(Message 52585)
Posted 17 Sep 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: So, there's a new batch released running the new weather@home2 application. This batch is for the MaRIUS project, lead scientist Dr Beno�t Guillod says: "What are the risks and uncertainties of droughts in the UK and Europe? We�ve just launched the first generation of 1900-2010 weather@home2 runs for MaRIUS, with improved land surface models and at a 25km resolution over Europe" Many thanks for running these models! Cheers, Hannah |
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5)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Weather@Home Mexico: New Climate Modelling Experiment Launching Soon
(Message 52487)
Posted 27 Aug 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Hi JIM, The Mexico regional model will be run using the new weather@home (WAH2) application, a region-independent application which we plan to use for all our new regional modelling experiments. This application will primarily be for Windows. Cheers, Hannah |
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Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Weather@Home Mexico: New Climate Modelling Experiment Launching Soon
(Message 52478)
Posted 25 Aug 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherhome-mexico-new-climate-modelling-experiment-launching-soon/ We�re pleased to announce that we will be adding a new regional model to our weather@home regional modelling experiments, covering Mexico and parts of North and South America. The experiment that will be run with this model will initially be looking at the influence of human-caused climate change on two unusual weather events in 2004/5: the very wet winter season over the northwest of Mexico and the anomalous wet summer over the southeast of Mexico, which was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history. This experiment is part of the RECLIM-UK (Regional Climate Projections Initiative Mexico � UK) project, sponsored by the British Council, and will be led by Dr Ruth Cerezo-Mota at the Universidad Nacional Aut�noma de M�xico (UNAM). You can read more about this new region and experiment on the weather@home Mexico page. You can expect to be running Mexico region models in the next couple of months. Best wishes, Hannah |
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7)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
New experiment launched: weather@home 2015: Western US Drought
(Message 52422)
Posted 13 Aug 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Nearly all the models have come back, time for the analysis. It�s been a few weeks, but pretty much all the models have now come back to us, after being run on people�s home computers. As you can see on the plot below, we now have over 13,000 simulations to study, which is fantastic! We�ll keep collecting returned models, though, so please do keep crunching any you have on your computer.  Now we have most of the models back, we can begin the analysis, which will take several months. Many thanks to all our volunteers for crunching all these models for us, it�s very much appreciated! Cheers, Hannah |
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8)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
New publication: Change needed to avoid ‘paralysis’ in climate policies
(Message 52376)
Posted 4 Aug 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: http://www.climateprediction.net/change-needed-to-avoid-paralysis-in-climate-policies/ Climate scientists, including climateprediction.net�s Dr Friederike Otto and Professor Myles Allen, are calling for an overhaul of the way climate change pledges are assessed, in order to avoid �indefinite procrastination� on designing efficient mitigation policies. Writing in Nature Climate Change, they say that the �pledge and review� approach that will form the basis of commitments made at the UN climate change negotiations in December, presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. �Scientific uncertainty about the long-term impacts of climate change is often used as an excuse for inaction, or as a basis for recommending highly precautionary worst-case-scenario strategies, which may be unpalatable to policy makers juggling economic and political interests,� said Dr Friederike Otto of Oxford�s Environmental Change Institute, lead author of the paper. �Human-induced warming has brought us 10% closer to 2�C since 2009. So any country whose government acknowledged in 2009 that CO2 emissions must reach net zero by the time temperatures reach the target stabilisation level of 2�C should be 10% of the way there now. However there still is no overall strategy to achieve this.� The authors, who include the Oxford Martin School�s Professor Myles Allen, argue that strategies should be �anti-fragile�, meaning they are not just robust under uncertainty but more successful under a wide range of uncertainties, including scientific, economic and political risks. Learning from trial and error is an integral part of such an �anti-fragile� strategy, allowing for evolving knowledge to be incorporated at low costs. They looked at what climate policy makers could learn from adaptive management techniques, to create an approach to mitigation that more fully accounts for the set of risks that governments care about, is less dependent on a globally binding mandate, and which could, therefore, be a better way to preserve flexibility in climate mitigation. They recommend an adaptive strategy grounded on an index of the warming attributable to human influence, which is itself based on observed temperatures. Calculated in 2014 the rise in global mean temperature attributable to anthropogenic influences was 0.91?C. In contrast to global mean temperature the �attributable anthropogenic warming� index is not subject to high year to year and decadal variability. It also requires no complex modelling and could be updated on an annual basis, allowing governments to review their pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The paper outlines three policy options using the index and concludes that indexing to attributable anthropogenic warming allows a transparent link between the policy instrument and the policy goal. It is a simple way to monitor the overall consistency between the evolving climate change signal, individual countries� pledges and the overall goal of achieving net zero CO2 emissions by the time we reach 2�C of human-related warming. Dr Otto concludes: �At a crucial time for climate negotiations, the proposed index offers a transparent and accountable method of evaluating climate policies that deals with the remaining uncertainty of the climate response, which has so far had a paralysing effect on climate change policies.� Further information: - View the full text of 'Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy' - More information on the index can be found at http://www.safecarbon.org, an up-to-the-second index of human-induced warming relative to the mid-19th century (1861-80) and cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use, cement manufacturing and land-use-change. - Human-induced warming is currently increasing at 1.8 hundredths of a degree per year, or 0.6 billionths of a degree per second. |
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9)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
New experiment launched: weather@home 2015: Western US Drought
(Message 52311)
Posted 23 Jul 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherhome-2015-western-us-drought-all-models-have-been-sent-out-about-half-have-come-back/ So, thanks to your fantastic efforts, all 22,000 models for this experiment have now been taken to run on your home computers, and nearly half have finished running and have been uploaded back to our servers. The plots for the results so far have been updated to include all the models that have been returned to us � currently sitting at nearly 8,000 models! Thanks again to everyone who has helped us with this experiment by running our models on your computer, we couldn�t do this without you. There's 3 plots for each of the 3 states we're studying, but here's an image of the most recent results for snowfall in Oregon:  Cheers, Hannah PS. We've realised our mis-spelling on "celsius" and will correct it shortly! |
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10)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
New experiment launched: weather@home 2015: Western US Drought
(Message 52242)
Posted 15 Jul 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: http://www.climateprediction.net/new-climatology-results-for-western-us-drought-experiment/ We now have the first results for our Climatological simulations, investigating the influence of removing the �blob� of warm sea surface temperatures off the western US coast. The �blob� has a strong influence on the temperature, for example the climatological simulations without the �blob� are colder than the actual or natural simulations. In the climatological simulations, it is interesting to see a different response in the precipitation between the different states. This is something our scientists will be investigating in more detail in the upcoming weeks. Have a look at the results so far on the website: http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/western-us-drought/results/ Cheers, Hannah |
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11)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
How to find out which project a model belongs to
(Message 52236)
Posted 14 Jul 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Hi Digby, Yes, it's definitely a good idea - I'm trying to make it clearer which batches of work units are related to which science experiment, but it's not always that straight forward to keep this up to date! I'll keep posting on that forum page that you mentioned. I also keep the right-hand box "Project Status" on the www.climateprediction.net frontpage up to date. Cheers, Hannah |
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12)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Climate change has made the European Heatwave twice as likely
(Message 52232)
Posted 13 Jul 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: We've just done an analysis of the heatwave we've just experienced in Europe and found that climate change made it twice as likely to occur. Read more on the website: http://www.climateprediction.net/update-heatwave-twice-as-likely-due-to-climate-change/ This was a collaboration with Climate Central and you can read more about it on their website too: http://www.climatecentral.org/europe-2015-heatwave-climate-change http://www.climatecentral.org/news/european-heat-wave-chances-rise-19225 Cheers, Hannah |
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13)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
New experiment launched: weather@home 2015: Western US Drought
(Message 52183)
Posted 7 Jul 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/western-us-drought/results/ We sent out the first models to our volunteers last week and so far we've had 607 returned to us - here are some plots using those initial models. Eventually, we will be running over 20,000 models, so we will add these to the plots as they come in. The "climatology" results, that look at the possible effect of the "blob" on the drought, are not ready yet so we're just showing you the "actual" (world with climate change) and "natural" (world that might have been without climate change) experiments. For an explanation of the 3 different sets of models we're running, read the Experimental Setup page. For an explanation of what these plots are showing, read the Return Time Plots page. You can see the full plots (so far) for precipitation, snow and temperature on the individual results pages for each State:
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14)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Climate results and why we do this
(Message 52172)
Posted 6 Jul 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Hi jayw900, This is a good point, but there's slightly more to it even than Les and astroWX have correctly explained. The way our climate modelling experiments work is to run tens of thousands of models to form what are called ensembles of models. Each model is a plausible but very slightly different version of the world. The climate, as you probably know, is a highly complex, chaotic system, and even models starting with essentially the same starting conditions can end up with different climates. It's the comparison of thousands of models within an ensemble that lets us make statistical statements, for example about the probability of an extreme weather event occurring. However, it also means that each individual model may not, on its own, match exactly with reality, but that's ok because we're not looking at one model on its own, we are looking at the average over thousands of models. So, whilst your model should look plausibly like the real world (unless it's a model from a "world that might have been within climate change" ensemble, in which case it wont!), it may not match exactly what happened with the weather in the real world. I hope that helps, And thanks for crunching! Cheers, Hannah |
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15)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
New experiment launched: weather@home 2015: Western US Drought
(Message 52143)
Posted 30 Jun 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Hi Dave - good question! My understanding is that climate change may both increase the magnitude of the sea surface temperature and the strength of the connection of this to climate elsewhere in the US. The blob is not an entirely "natural" phenomenon, but neither is it "caused" by climate change - as always, the climate system is highly complex! Our experiment isn't looking at the causes of the "blob" but should be able to say how much influence, separately, the "blob" and climate change have had on the current drought. Cheers, Hannah |
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16)
Questions and Answers :
Macintosh :
No Tasks Available for Mac?
(Message 52141)
Posted 30 Jun 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Hi, Sorry there are currently no simulations available for Mac. Please stick with us until we release our next set of Mac simulations. Thanks! Hannah |
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17)
Message boards :
Number crunching :
New experiment launched: weather@home 2015: Western US Drought
(Message 52140)
Posted 30 Jun 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: http://www.climateprediction.net/new-experiment-launched-weatherhome-2015-western-us-drought/ We�ve just launched a new experiment looking at the causes of the ongoing drought in California, Oregon and Washington. Has climate change made the drought more likely? Or is it the �blob�, the giant patch of unusually warm water off the West Coast in the northeast Pacific Ocean? We�ve just put out over 20,000 models to study this phenomenon � you can read more about the drought in the Western US and how our experiment will help answer these questions on the weather@home pages on our website: - weather@home 2015: Western US Drought - Experiment setup - Read more about the Western US Drought We�ll be posting results up on our website as soon as we get the first models back, probably in about a week from now, so watch this space! We�re doing this experiment with scientists based at Oregon State University � read their media advisory about the project. Keep crunching! Cheers, Hannah PS. We are aware that there isn't currently anything for Mac users to run right now, please stick with us until we release our next set of Mac simulations. |
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18)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Who is Responsible for Climate Change? Talk in Oxford on July 2 by Peter Frumhoff
(Message 52084)
Posted 23 Jun 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: Hi, If any of you are in Oxford next week, come along to hear a talk by Peter Frumhoff, Director of Science and Policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), one of our partners from the States. He'll be speaking on July 2nd in the Geography Department (where we're based): http://www.climate.ox.ac.uk/event/who-is-responsible-for-climate-change/?instance_id=837 Abstract: The question of responsibility for climate change lies at the heart of societal debate over actions to address it. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the principle of �common but differentiated responsibilities� among nations, suggesting that industrialized nations that had produced the greatest share of historic emissions bore particular responsibility for preventing dangerous interference with the climate system. But society can distribute climate responsibilities in other ways as well. This talk considers the conceptual territory of climate responsibility, and focuses in particular on the distinctive responsibilities of the major investor-owned producers of fossil fuels � assessing the scale of their contribution to the problem, the actions companies took and could have taken in response to the scientific evidence of climate change, and the prospective implications of a growing scholarly, public and policy focus on their climate responsibilities. Cheers, Hannah |
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19)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Which experiment is this work unit for?
(Message 51860)
Posted 20 Apr 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: A new batch of hadcm3s models has been released for the RAPID ChAAOS experiment - you can read more about the experiment here: http://www.climateprediction.net/projects/rapid-chaaos/ Sarah Sparrow, the lead scientist on the project, says: "This batch is the 3rd submission for the RAPID_ChAAOS experiment covering the years 1984-1986, 1994-1996 and 2004-2006. For this batch the model configurations sent out have been further filtered to include only the top 15% (ranked by SST (sea surface temperature) and upper ocean heat content) from all the previous RAPID-ChAAOS simulations for 1980-1983, 1990-1993 and 2000-2003." Thanks as always for crunching these models for us! Cheers, Hannah |
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20)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Which experiment is this work unit for?
(Message 51834)
Posted 14 Apr 2015 by Hannah Rowlands
Post: There's currently a big batch that was released a few days ago for Weather At Home Australia New Zealand region (hadam3p_anz) (Mac and Windows only). This is a continuation of an existing project. The researcher on this project, Mitchell Black, says: "We have just released some more work units for the ANZ experiment looking at ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and recent extreme weather in Australia." Thanks for crunching! Best wishes, Hannah |
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