1)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Polar ice data ahead of models
(Message 52354)
Posted 28 Jul 2015 by Napoleon Post:
I think that'll be a visit to an expanse of open water by then. |
2)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Polar ice data ahead of models
(Message 52342)
Posted 27 Jul 2015 by Napoleon Post: Here's a wee bit more about this, from the latest by James Hansen http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-james-hansen/multi-meter-sea-level-rise-is-an-issue-for-todays-public_b_7875828.html ...which to me says that ice modelling is something tricky that hasn't been mastered yet Says, In contrast, we show in a prior paper and our new paper that ice sheet models are far too sluggish compared with the magnitude and speed of sea level changes in the paleoclimate record. This is not surprising, given the primitive state of ice sheet modeling. So would the CPDN simulations concur with this - do their ice results match with the paleoclimate record ? |
3)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Polar ice data ahead of models
(Message 52341)
Posted 27 Jul 2015 by Napoleon Post: This needs to be taken in context. OK, but are the CPDN models like whatever it is the IPCC is using ? A lot of scientists are saying things like this - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/23/controversial-sea-level-rise-paper-is-now-published-online/ �There is no doubt that the sea level rise, within the IPCC, is a very conservative number,� says Greg Holland, a climate and hurricane researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who has also reviewed the Hansen study. �So the truth lies somewhere between IPCC and Jim.� I've asked a couple of well qualified scientists about this and they also say the IPCC is too conservative on sea level. So I wonder what the score is there. |
4)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Polar ice data ahead of models
(Message 52340)
Posted 27 Jul 2015 by Napoleon Post: Hi Les, Iain, Napoleon ... thank you for this information, excellent posts. Aye |
5)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Polar ice data ahead of models
(Message 52287)
Posted 21 Jul 2015 by Napoleon Post: Here is some interesting information from 2013 -- the Guardian -- I'm familiar with that - the US navy has a more accurate model. Is it more accurate or does it agree with the CPDN modelling ? |
6)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Polar ice data ahead of models
(Message 52286)
Posted 21 Jul 2015 by Napoleon Post: Some CPDN models forecast the future, or rather "a future", but many models also attempt to understand what caused the past as it is known to have happened: in those "hindcasts" the ice extent would presumably be taken from observations - in which case it doesn't matter that the extents were worse at that time than was forecast at some earlier time. Well that's a good point about being prepared , and the root of my question, because my town was flooded during the recent storm surge - and the authorities, basing their defenses on IPCC projections, weren't prepared. So does the CPDN take into account the latest ice cap data to verify it's models ? I know there is a bit of a fight over this because Wadhams goes with a non linear ice retreat based on observation - leading to imminent ice cap loss, whereas most modellers draw a straight line through the data and think it's less urgent. Wouldn't it be a good test of the backcasting to compare model results with the latest ice loss data ? |
7)
Message boards :
climateprediction.net Science :
Polar ice data ahead of models
(Message 52283)
Posted 21 Jul 2015 by Napoleon Post: Arctic ice melt is ahead of model predictions, I believe, at least those used by the IPCC. Peter Wadhams, death spiral etc. So does the BOINC model account for this ? If not, is there any point running it ? |
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