climateprediction.net home page
Posts by Napoleon

Posts by Napoleon

1) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Polar ice data ahead of models (Message 52354)
Posted 28 Jul 2015 by Napoleon
Post:


Give it another 10 years, and then re-visit the subject. :)




I think that'll be a visit to an expanse of open water by then.
2) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Polar ice data ahead of models (Message 52342)
Posted 27 Jul 2015 by Napoleon
Post:
Here's a wee bit more about this, from the latest by James Hansen

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-james-hansen/multi-meter-sea-level-rise-is-an-issue-for-todays-public_b_7875828.html

...which to me says that ice modelling is something tricky that hasn't been mastered yet

Says,

In contrast, we show in a prior paper and our new paper that ice sheet models are far too sluggish compared with the magnitude and speed of sea level changes in the paleoclimate record. This is not surprising, given the primitive state of ice sheet modeling.


So would the CPDN simulations concur with this - do their ice results match with the paleoclimate record ?
3) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Polar ice data ahead of models (Message 52341)
Posted 27 Jul 2015 by Napoleon
Post:
This needs to be taken in context.

The models used have been written over many years, by many people, at the UK Met Office, for running on several generations of supercomputers.

These people, and those providing the data sets that we run, (and getting the results that we return), are professionals, and are always looking at and for research results in the climate field.
So they'll be well aware of what your post refers to. And a lot more that doesn't make it into the popular press.

As for what data is included in different runs of our modelling, that's up to the researchers running each experiment. And if you watch the files being down loaded onto your computer, you can see some of the data ideas (for want of a better word), that are going to be used.

And the models are getting more sophisticated, as computers available to the public get more powerful.
e.g. You'll notice from the Server Status page that some use the MOSES II land scheme, and some also use TRIFFID.
The earlier models used MOSES, the original scheme. These II versions are using the latest, more detailed descriptions.
(MOSES and TRIFFID are descriptor files for various land use. e.g. vegetation, large bodies of water, high snow forming mountains, etc.)

If you look at this old one of mine under Perturbed Parameters, you can see that it took into account Sea ice, and also the file in which that was contained.
Others over the years have labels to do with ice fall.

As for what ANY military group is using, I'd prefer not to comment. I don't want people with fedoras, dark glasses, and turned up collars coming around and asking me what I'm up to.




OK, but are the CPDN models like whatever it is the IPCC is using ?
A lot of scientists are saying things like this -

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/23/controversial-sea-level-rise-paper-is-now-published-online/

�There is no doubt that the sea level rise, within the IPCC, is a very conservative number,� says Greg Holland, a climate and hurricane researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who has also reviewed the Hansen study. �So the truth lies somewhere between IPCC and Jim.�

I've asked a couple of well qualified scientists about this and they also say the IPCC is too conservative on sea level.

So I wonder what the score is there.
4) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Polar ice data ahead of models (Message 52340)
Posted 27 Jul 2015 by Napoleon
Post:
Hi Les, Iain, Napoleon ... thank you for this information, excellent posts.


Aye
5) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Polar ice data ahead of models (Message 52287)
Posted 21 Jul 2015 by Napoleon
Post:
Here is some interesting information from 2013 -- the Guardian --

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/09/us-navy-arctic-sea-ice-2016-melt

The project, based out of the US Naval Postgraduate School's Department of Oceanography, uses complex modelling techniques that make its projections more accurate than others.

sorry for the Long copy and paste.



I'm familiar with that - the US navy has a more accurate model. Is it more accurate or does it agree with the CPDN modelling ?
6) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Polar ice data ahead of models (Message 52286)
Posted 21 Jul 2015 by Napoleon
Post:
Some CPDN models forecast the future, or rather "a future", but many models also attempt to understand what caused the past as it is known to have happened: in those "hindcasts" the ice extent would presumably be taken from observations - in which case it doesn't matter that the extents were worse at that time than was forecast at some earlier time.

For forecasts, underestimating the ice loss would be expected to produce a "not quite as bad" world. If the people in that world were to address even that not-quite-as-bad world then they would be better prepared for the worse world that is almost inevitable given our catastrophic indolence.


Well that's a good point about being prepared , and the root of my question, because my town was flooded during the recent storm surge - and the authorities, basing their defenses on IPCC projections, weren't prepared.

So does the CPDN take into account the latest ice cap data to verify it's models ?

I know there is a bit of a fight over this because Wadhams goes with a non linear ice retreat based on observation - leading to imminent ice cap loss, whereas most modellers draw a straight line through the data and think it's less urgent.

Wouldn't it be a good test of the backcasting to compare model results with the latest ice loss data ?
7) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Polar ice data ahead of models (Message 52283)
Posted 21 Jul 2015 by Napoleon
Post:
Arctic ice melt is ahead of model predictions, I believe, at least those used by the IPCC.

Peter Wadhams, death spiral etc.

So does the BOINC model account for this ?
If not, is there any point running it ?




©2024 climateprediction.net