Posts by old_user55255

21) Questions and Answers : Windows : maximun update period (?) ... error -113 (Message 9610) Posted 20 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: I connect to the internet using a dial-up connection (unfortunately). Sometimes 1-2 days between when I connect to the internet. Is this going to be a problem? I'm using win xp, boinc v.4.19. Got this error recently: (...) Deferring communication with project for 44 minutes and 15 seconds Can't resolve hostname climateprediction.net (valid name, no data record of requested type) Couldn't read master page for climateprediction.net: error -113 Master file fetch failed (...) Thanks, eric
22) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : KYOTO & the US (Again) (Message 9565) Posted 19 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: > <a href="http://www.ucomics.com/tomtoles/2005/02/17/"> Tom Toles on Kyoto</a> > Ah yes, the whole Kyoto thing. For the record, I do live in the US. I do think Kyoto is a good thing, a step in right direction, and it embarrasses me the US government refuses to support it. However, I don't believe Kyoto will make a practical difference in reducing CO2 levels. Why? Many reasons. First, the human population continues to explode. I feel this overpopulated planet is the root cause of many of the environmental problems we may end up facing. A strong argument can be made the human population is already way into overshoot, and without the benefit a modern agriculture (dependent on oil) and unsustainable farming practices the current population is unsustainable. Second, the entire global economy is based on growth, largely made possible by cheap oil. Even with conservation efforts, consumption will continue to rise, just perhaps a bit more slowly. Once cheap oil dwindles (already happening) the price of energy will go up. Hopefully this will slow down the growth of the human population, but I have trouble imagining CO2 LESS than 500 ppm next century (more likely double that) barring some sort of 'dieoff'. From my point of view, I do not currently see a bright future for humanity.
23) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Gloom \'n doom scenario (Message 9512) Posted 18 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: I'd be interested in another model, this one simulating a more extreme CO2 level. The way I see it, people aren't going to stop burning fossil fuels until they're all gone. So... assume a worse case scenario where sometime next century the CO2 level roughly quadruples from its pre-industrial level. About 1 part per 1000 (1 ppt ?) How could this come about? Easy, humans burn every last bit of fossil fuels they can there hands on (oil's on its way out, but there's still tonnes of coal, oil shale, tar sands, methane hydrates, etc.). Also, the destruction of CO2 sinks - rainforests, ocean absorption (collapse of plankton)... possible positive feedback effects from melting tundra. You get the idea. It's possible. How extreme would the warming be then? Any guesses? True 'run-a-away' global warming possible? If anything I think the current model runs are too conservative, and I don't think they're looking far enough into the future. Still, I think this is an excellent project, and it will be getting what few cycles I have to offer. Regards, Eric B
24) Questions and Answers : Preferences : How to look at history of model run (Message 9504) Posted 18 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: > Hi and welcome > > I cant answer all your questions but I'll try with some. > > The 1811 date is purely notional. Weather can be a bit odd early in phase 1. > > You can try looking at the history of the model by backing up the BOINC folder > and using CPView on the backup download available from > <a href="http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~sykesm/cpdn.html">Martin Sykes > site</a> > > Unfortunately this only allows you to look at seasonal averages. Daily > information is not stored other than at time of calculation. There will be an > official IDL visualisation package - hopefully soon, which will allow more > access to current timestep information. > > The climate model being used is a version of Hadley atmospheric model HADAM3, > which does indeed use a slab ocean. Experiment 2 plans to use a dynamic ocean > (HADCM3 model). You may want to try the Hadley centre website for some of your > > other questions: <a> href="http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/">Hadley centre</a> > Thanks for the links. Hadley centre's been bookmarked :) HadCM3 lookes interesting - the HadCEM model even more so, though I'm guessing the CEM model is not computationally lightweight :( This really is an excellent idea. Running these ensembles to get some sort of grasp of these models strengths and flaws. PC's have gotten so fast, and the vast majority of them are waaay under untilized -- unless you're playing a video game. Can harldy wait to see the results of experiment 3, though it's disheartening to see the upper bound for any potential global warming to have grown so much. -Eric B
25) Questions and Answers : Preferences : How to look at history of model run (Message 9503) Posted 18 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: > This is experiment 1, as mentioned <a> href="http://www.climateprediction.net/science/strategy.php"> here,</a> and is > more about probing the values of certain parameters to find the stable / > unstable boundarys. > > Experiment 2 will be more relistic. We hope. :) > > Les > > Any idea when the second experiment (hindcast using coupled model) will begin? Are there a mininum number of model years that must be completed from the first experiment before it starts? Thanks, Eric B
26) Questions and Answers : Preferences : How to look at history of model run (Message 9488) Posted 17 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: Just got the software running today. Very cool. Been interested in weather all my life, and for the past eight years I've been looking at satellite imagery from all five major weather satellites on a daily basis. Heh. Noticed the program defaults to a METEOSAT point-of-view. Prog. is still simulating the weather from the past millennia (on year 1811 i believe). From what I can tell (looking at temp. and pressure) it looks like a good approximation. Cloud cover looks a little funky though. Anyway, I would like to be able to look at the history of my model run - is this possible? Be nice to be able to step through the days that have already been computed and see how the temp. and pressure dovetails with my experience. Also, are there any detailed docs on the climate model being used? I did read they are using a 'slab' ocean model - so no ocean currents. How accurately is extratropical weather simulated? The passage of highs/lows, etc? Deep tropical convection/hurricanes? Any links or docs appreciated on this. Thanks, Eric Bazan
27) Questions and Answers : Windows : unable to run cpdn_viz2 (Message 9484) Posted 17 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: Downloaded advanced visualizer - cpdn_viz2 (20 meg file). After installing, unable to get this to work. Shortcut unable to locate exe, and when I attempt to run exe (vis2) directly from '.../execs' dir I get error - 'unable to load filesystem_stdio.dll'. I'm running win xp, boinc 4.19. Any suggestions? -Eric B
28) Questions and Answers : Preferences : unable to run cpdn_viz2 (Message 9483) Posted 17 Feb 2005 by old_user55255 Post: Just became a member... got the software running. I like it! Anyway, I also downloaded the advanced visualiser - cpdn_viz2 (~20 megabytes). Been unable to run this after installing it. First off, the desktop shortcut unable to locate exe. When I tried to run .exe (vis2) directly from '.../execs' dir I get error: 'unable to load filesystem_stdio.dll' I'm running win xp, and boinc ver 4.19. Any suggestions???

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