1) Message boards : Number crunching : Problem uploading final results (Message 15514) Posted 29 Aug 2005 by old_user46965 Post: I was hoping, Crandles, for some opinion of what to do with the last slab model I'm running, if Phase II shows unstable. Is anything of value to be gained by its completion? Is completion the only way to do the large trickle, and otherwise you're just left with summary data from the little trickles. In the 3 days preceeding giving up, I redial more than 100 times and rebooted more than a dozen trying to get a clean connection. Those I did get never amounted to more than 5 or 6 Meg worth of download of that 23 Meg file, and it kept resetting and starting again at Zero -- rather than resuming. It was time to quit. I guess Sulfur runs don't introduce new parameters, and work within the parameter space of the slab models. I had imagined some 3x3x3 matrix of parameters specific to aerosol physics, and thus 2.7e6 runs covering the same parameter space as before. Good luck with circulating ocean. It would be cool -- though frightening -- if circulation in shown to stop within a reasonable subset of parameter space. I think the instafreeze of the Dennis Quaid movie is a bit far-fetched, though, in imagining disaster scenarios. The plot of that movie has some holes you could move a battleship through. --- an afterthought -- you mention beginning a hindcast in 2006. Is that described anywhere, especially the suite of forcings involved?

2) Message boards : Number crunching : Problem uploading final results (Message 15447) Posted 27 Aug 2005 by old_user46965 Post: Well -- I still don't understand the nature of the network issues in the intermittent ability to download, amidst the more common shutdown of all network activity when I try to download from CPDN. That 23 Meg file keeps aborting and restarting from zero. The fourth time, I set "no new work" from CP... and will complete my last project about 3 weeks from now -- or 1 week should it prove unstable in Phase II, as the graphics seem to suggest already, half way into Phase II. I guess I'll see how proteins fold. I'm no big fan of Carl Sagen, and see SETI as essentially spinning wheels. With users dropping out from the sulfur model for various reasons, and each run taking 5x the computation time as HadSM3 -- then I hope to hell they've made good use of HadSM3 to cull unreasonable values from within model space -- like by 2 orders of magnitude, to be able to explore much of model space at all in the sulfur model.

3) Message boards : Number crunching : Problem uploading final results (Message 15410) Posted 26 Aug 2005 by old_user46965 Post: File transfer problems showing up again. This time it's feeding me the sulfer model -- about 30+ Meg on a crappy dialup. I know no way of forcing the project to send me another 4.13 HadSM model instead, and not have to take this new software. I'm updating to BOINC 4.45 to see if it resolves some incompatability with my dial-up software -- I get no data transfer when BOINC is open, even in suspended or disable network mode -- and then when I exit BOINC, my connection works again for other apps. If the incompatability persists -- I guess I'm done. I've said that before, but this time the file transfer problems involve 30+ Meg instead of 10+, which generally consumes about 2-3 days to complete. That means a week or more with the damned sulfur model. Unless I can force a 4.13 download. Is there a way?

4) Message boards : Number crunching : Problem uploading final results (Message 11169) Posted 20 Mar 2005 by old_user46965 Post: Well -- it only took about 8-9 hours to get results uploaded and new work units started. The new display doesn't seen to change significantly, except the "F"ilter toggle doesn't work -- filter seems always on. Actually, on inspection, it seems more than that -- like some kind of modeling based on cell values, not just a graphical edge-smoothing. The "W" view is quite nice, but doesn't seem to be scalable like the globe view, and it resets the globe view to center on Greenwich Meridian when you toggle back. One problem, which I hope is only temporary, it the the last trickle of my second model to finish, in the midst of the all the file transfer activity, seems to still be unrecorded. So, I can't see yet the Phase III changes. --- Addendum: At the start of new work units, I rebooted right away, since my first models messed up and new ones had to be loaded the first time I rebooted after starting CP... It was some kind of corruption of some of the hadsm3 files. Anyhow -- caluclations started again cleanly -- and right away it communicated to host to send the last trickle and do whatever "ready to report" wants to report. So all is well, and 3 months from now, 2 more work units and hopefully broadband by then. --- Did 4.10 fix the color anomaly on temperatures > 40C? I'm glad that file transfers support resuming. I had about 20 re-connects in the course of finishing, during 2 of which, the bulk of the transfers were made. Did finally get about 2kbps transfer, in brief intervals. Damned dial-up!

5) Message boards : Number crunching : Problem uploading final results (Message 11159) Posted 20 Mar 2005 by old_user46965 Post: 1) Where does the GUI identify where the uploads are being directed to, or where the downloads are coming from? 2) I've finished a project, but the file uploads are slow and erratic and downloads worse for the next project coming -- having to replace 4.04 with 4.10 as well as get new models. 3) the only way I can use the web is to suspsend BOINC file transfers, and with it, the project still 6 hours from completion. I don't mind keeping my CPU occupied, but I frankly cannot allow my web access to be compromised by file transfers. IF they ran cleanly -- fine -- but if a new project ain't up and running and uploads complete by Monday, I'm outta here. Now I'm gonna un-suspend the project and go read a book while upload proceed at about 200 bytes per second on average.

6) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 9399) Posted 16 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: It's getting close to the end of Phase I for these models... the spring snow melt does seem to vary year to year, but at Year 15, it's not been tuned out, by any means..... We'll see what Phase II brings. http://www.geocities.com/bob_corey/Year15_Phase_1.gif I'm wondering just exactly what the Calibration Phase entails -- as I understand it, it's artifical heat fluxes into ocean cells to sustain a temperature set in the initial conditions (a single temperature for the whole ocean, or a seasonally varying temperature for each cell?) -- and then the temperature constraint is removed for Phase II, while the heat balance is constrained by the flux which is determined by Phase I..... Is this the jist of it, or am I way off base?

7) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : \"After Tomorrow\" (Message 8889) Posted 8 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: <A href='http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=2177'>Tom Dispatch</A> wrote at length about American indifference to climate change. He even cites the Nature paper and gets typically alarmist about the 11C tail of the PDF. There are signs, though, it seems, that the USA is slowly yielding to the barrage of evidence that change is happening and could accelerate and might prompt positive feedbacks of the sort that portend true catastrophe. I read the after tomorrow article too. On average, though, I don't understand the world to be drier in most conceivable scenarios. What is the scientific explanation for greater precipitation extremes accomanying what is likely a net increase in world precipitation? Will places where rain happens be all the more violent? Will oceans see more of that rain, starving the land of it?

8) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 8798) Posted 7 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: I'm sure most of us might find things in the models we're running that strike us as odd. I notice that Central Asia gets a snow cover through most of Russia and half of China, but not the pacific coast or Europe. What bothered me initially was also snow cover on oceans at what I would think are low latitudes for ice. I did notice the same snow anomoly -- not so pronounced, around Bangaladesh. Not much happening in the southern hemisphere. And yes, both models show the SE US getting much snow, and retaining through much of the spring months... An example from the other model... it's not low ground temperatures at issue... http://www.geocities.com/bob_corey/July_Snow_Anomaly.gif http://www.geocities.com/bob_corey/July_Snow_Anomaly_Temp.gif There is a 9 hour difference between the shots, but I assure you that temperatures through the night did not dip below 10C, probably not 15C. I'm convinced, since no one is responding to this thread with similar observations that the cause is parametric, not systemic. But what about snow on the sea off the coast of Portugal?

9) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 8711) Posted 6 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: Yes -- 4 years into Phase I, I still see anomalous?? snow accumulation and retention in the SE USA. My questions regarding validation are answered in a more careful re-reading of the Nature paper, largely in Figure 2b. Indeed, Phase II results were compared with observed values, and, as crandle points out, are quite sound through the whole ensemble relative to a variety of GCMs. Though local resolution isn't explicitly examined -- it it validated by the RMSE calculation. And on second thought, I do see value in intercomparative validation of models -- to see if reducing the computational complexity (by time and grid scales, simplified algorithms, etc) still retains utility in its conclusions resembling those of the 'definitive' model. Anyhow -- I've put my feet in my mouth quite enough. I'll put them in snowshoes -- gonna need them through the month of May in sunny, warm, snow-bound Virginia.

10) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 8681) Posted 5 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: I guess with 30,000 trickling machines, 300/day sounds about right. Lacking human 'judges,' by the constraints put forward -- lacking any validation of variant models, I'd be inclined to accept maybe .5 sigma of the indicated variation, not the whole range or 2 sigma interval. Still, a 3C - 5C range of temperature rise, while not so alarmist as 10C, is cause for concern, that I wish my government would take seriously. My countrymen obviously have other priorities, such as being ready for the rapture, so they can watch from heaven the rest of us deal with circumstances which experience to date leaves us unprepared. I'm idly reading some of other papers reference from this site and around the internet.... for one thing I see that late/slow snow melt has been an issue with GCM's in the past. I still don't know if what I'm observing is parametric or systemic. It seems modeled moisture entrainment was affected as much as surface albedo by the anomaly. I get indications that physical measurements of cloud physics are indeed uncertain -- even indicated cloud density seems dependent on measurment technique. I'm reading a report now on GCM validation.... http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/research/mhfinal.pdf If I understand what CMIP means, I don't trust it. How are models to be validated by comparison to one another? I probably don't understand the concept. I see that climate study must recognize the possibility of 1000 year events, that aren't necessarily invalidating. My theory of cull, as an engineer, has always been to recognize that a selection of any number of choices is likely to reject an equal number of valid or even superior choices, while retaining a large number of dead end choices. But an engineer has different objectives, which are not necessarily unmet by failure to recognize the best possible option.

11) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 8659) Posted 5 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: As I read this, snow has accumulated in the same are at the end of March 1814. Temperatures seem to vary from 0 to 15C I've not seen them dip below 0 (green color) south of the Carolinas any of 3 consecutive nights. I wonder -- given 1000 models, and 20 "judges" from different areas of the world, how many models would pass the scruitiny of judges saying "Hey! it's not like that where I live!" Perhaps it's just my prediliction to cull results, But if 50 pass the scruitiny of 18 judges, I'd put my computing resources into finer grid/time scale or more computationally complex variants of those 50. Maybe that gets past what distributive computing can do. And maybe I'm naive. I'm learning that sometimes "tweaking" adjustments of models or fine tuning of algorithms can produce large differences using the same assumptions (parameter suites).

12) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 8589) Posted 4 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: &gt; Which stuff is naive? I'm neither a climate scientist nor a code geek -- I'm talking mostly from a viewpoint of what gives confidence in a model to a non-expert. And stability is certainly a criteron. Some resemblance to regional patterns in historic setting seems what a "consumer" of the model would like to see before trusting its conclusions about the future. I would want to know the phase III variation of that subset of stable phase II runs (20%) which meet some broad criterion for resembling the world we observe. Without such a cull, I don't place any faith in especially the more alarmist outcomes of Phase III calculations. They may indeed be valid predictions of possible futures, but stability alone is not validity. &gt; I'd like to see some deeper material available for &gt; people to browse as they get more into the project, I must blushingly admit that I enjoyed SimEarth from MAXIS on the NES, maybe SNES many years ago. You speak of what I imagine are quite refined models of energy flux, at phase boundaries, by spectral slices, with spectral variations of response by various materials. I saw some of that at Hadley and am duly impressed. I keep picturing biosphere changes as essential, though. Snow cover is not the only seasonal variation in spectral response. Vegetation has its seasonal cycles. It also has a climatic response, which understandably need not be considered in a first look. I wonder too, in the hydrodnamic modelling what consideration is made of orography on such a coarse scale. This really doesn't address the question of the content of the "Climate Science" section of the site, which I did find informative, I assure you. Links to some monographs could help those who wish to look deeper. With all the emphasis on cloud formation in the model, though -- some basic stuff on condensation dynamics, entrainment, rain formation, etc, and how the parametric pertubations reflect different assumption would be nice to see. I don't understand the process much at all. Maybe I missed it in my browsing. Thanks for clarifying the seasonal variation of the mean. And your last paragraph well addresses the concerns of the first paragraph in this reply. Stronger validation criteria for historical runs will indeed give more confidence is predictive runs, while one may still see considerable variation. I notice that Hadley posts a map predicting the desertification of Guyana. I didn't check out the fate of Southern NZ -- but a friend in Christchurch says its unwise to go outdoors without a hat. You seem to know especially well the impact of man on global conditions, like the Antarctic ozone hole.

13) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 8530) Posted 3 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: I went to the Hadley website after posting this. It's some interesting stuff there. They have the makings for some pretty exhaustive modeling that considers biosphere changes and the like. I tried to understand from the abstracts and summary information there what's all involved in cloud physics which seems to play a big role in cp.net. I gather much effort has been made at empirical parameterization -- taking actual measurements. Perhaps snow melt is involved in the pertubations -- I saw that melt had finally occured by mid-july. I can see this leading to positive feedback/instability. We'll see when it gets to Phase II. So -- perhaps not a glitch in the model itself, but in the parameters I'm running. I hope that's the case.

14) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast (Message 8518) Posted 3 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: I've read or skimmed most of the Climate Science info in the cp.net webpage. It seems quite naive, if you ask me. Mostly atmospheric hydrodynamics, with condensation modeling, and albedo of land and cloud surfaces determining energy input -- radiation. I was wondering about seasons -- why is summer (assuming Oxford summer) hotter on the mean than winter for the whole globe? Greater water surface in the southern hemisphere? Anyhow -- I would assume that parameter validation would look at local conditions -- perhaps historical data for a few hundred grid squares, with RMS variance from the model used for validation. Rain in the Sahara, or low wind velocity in the North American Steppes, for instance, would seem to indicate an invalid set of parameters. And -- snow albedo being such an important component of the model, some glitch allowing snow retention in prolonged 20C weather would throw off the model regardless of the parameters. Also -- does snow accumulate over liquid water, or only atop ice and land? Snow code -- it would seem -- is inadequate in the model and ought be modified. Here is a picture from my current run http://www.geocities.com/bob_corey/Late_May_Snow_Anomoly.gif

15) Questions and Answers : Windows : Unrecoverable errors (file missing) on restart (Message 8330) Posted 1 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: &gt; There are two precautions you might take. &gt; &gt; One is to suspend BOINC before closing down. It may be that the CPDN app. had &gt; not closed properly, and that is a way of giving it time to do so. I tried suspending and restarting without a reboot, and it started back where I left off. When the problem happened I "exit"ed the client, thinking this sufficient. Since this happened later climateprediction.net - 2005-02-01 01:01:27 - Started download of hadsm3um_4.04_windows_intelx86.zip climateprediction.net - 2005-02-01 01:08:16 - Finished download of hadsm3um_4.04_windows_intelx86.zip Maybe that file got corrupted -- I've no idea how. &gt; The other is to backup the entire BOINC folder from time to time. Then if &gt; something like that happens you can at least go back to that rather than &gt; losing the whole thing. I'll do that next time I suspend to reboot. &gt; I think what has happened is unusual, though, so if it does recur it might be &gt; worth exploring why. Having somebody close down your computer by means of the &gt; power button might be an example! Power failure and lost carrier are common here. I'm hoping it's tolerant of that. If not, I doubt I'll have a 3 month stretch without unrecoverable corruption. Backups do seem to be the ticket. Thanks, Andrew. I hope it was indeed a fluke.

16) Questions and Answers : Windows : Unrecoverable errors (file missing) on restart (Message 8309) Posted 1 Feb 2005 by old_user46965 Post: Here is what BOINC messages say.... How do I avoid this the next time I reboot my computer? --- - 2005-01-31 23:56:55 - Starting BOINC client version 4.13 for windows_intelx86 climateprediction.net - 2005-01-31 23:56:55 - Project prefs: no separate prefs for home; using your defaults climateprediction.net - 2005-01-31 23:56:55 - Host ID is 97968 --- - 2005-01-31 23:56:56 - General prefs: from climateprediction.net (last modified 2005-01-31 19:29:52) --- - 2005-01-31 23:56:56 - General prefs: no separate prefs for home; using your defaults climateprediction.net - 2005-01-31 23:56:56 - ACTIVE_TASKS::restart_tasks(); missing files climateprediction.net - 2005-01-31 23:56:56 - Unrecoverable error for result 42ot_000212015_0 (One or more missing files) climateprediction.net - 2005-01-31 23:56:56 - ACTIVE_TASKS::restart_tasks(); missing files climateprediction.net - 2005-01-31 23:56:56 - Unrecoverable error for result 42ov_000212018_0 (One or more missing files)

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