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Climate change has made the European Heatwave twice as likely

Climate change has made the European Heatwave twice as likely

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Profile Hannah Rowlands

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Message 52232 - Posted: 13 Jul 2015, 14:40:19 UTC

We've just done an analysis of the heatwave we've just experienced in Europe and found that climate change made it twice as likely to occur.

Read more on the website:
http://www.climateprediction.net/update-heatwave-twice-as-likely-due-to-climate-change/

This was a collaboration with Climate Central and you can read more about it on their website too:
http://www.climatecentral.org/europe-2015-heatwave-climate-change
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/european-heat-wave-chances-rise-19225

Cheers,
Hannah
Hannah Rowlands
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No longer Communications Officer for climateprediction.net, as of October 2015
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John Eric Hopkinson

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Message 54362 - Posted: 22 Jun 2016, 15:26:35 UTC - in response to Message 52232.  

Hannah Rowlands is no longer Communications Officer, and that is unfortunate, because her last posts were rare evidence indicating some scientific connection between the distributed computing efforts and the actual weather/climatic events with which the computations were associated.
I need to follow up on the links which are provided in her post, but I am also asking the boards if there is some method provided by CPDN to determine the outcomes and the practical applications of the individual tasks or their cohort.
Do the CPDN results attract wide attention in the climatology "community"?


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John Eric Hopkinson

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Message 54363 - Posted: 22 Jun 2016, 15:35:06 UTC - in response to Message 54362.  

P.S.
I AM reading the Technical FAQs, and, "What does the expeiment do?"
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Profile Iain Inglis
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Message 54364 - Posted: 22 Jun 2016, 17:21:06 UTC

There is a summary in projects and weather@home and a list of papers in publications. There's also a nice list on the home page, under Recent CPDN Submissions.
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Les Bayliss
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Message 54365 - Posted: 22 Jun 2016, 21:55:14 UTC

Hi John

The tech faq is a basic summary for those that are "just a bit interested" in what's happening.

The sub-project in which Hannah was involved, was a collaboration between some of the cpdn people and a news group, (The Guardian?), to "inform" the public about citizen science, and climate modelling in particular.
As such, the results were extensively published.

However, the main research that goes on here, is by professional climate physicists, who are from various places around the planet. The model's "area" name gives an indication of where they are. (Except for "EU", which is a "wide ranging area".)

Their work is probably subject to non-disclosure agreements, and their results MAY appear in scientific papers / journals "in the fullness of time".

However, from time to time, a snippet appears somewhere that says something similar to: The research done by ... was used to inform the IPCC, and cpdn sometimes get mentioned. I think that some of these papers are mentioned in the publication section that Iain mentioned.

As for "attract wide attention in the climatology "community"", I would think that it would come up at their conferences. To what extent cpdn gets mentioned, is another matter.

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John Eric Hopkinson

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Message 54366 - Posted: 22 Jun 2016, 23:16:32 UTC - in response to Message 54365.  

Thanks Les, and to Iain for the links,
Given recent events in Oz, California, WesternCanada< Britain and europe etc. I thought that the immediacy of the CPDN results might offer some cannon fodder to fire at the offenders. (who is us,... we have met the enemy, and the enemy is us .........Pogo and AstroWX)
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Les Bayliss
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Message 54367 - Posted: 22 Jun 2016, 23:47:54 UTC - in response to Message 54366.  

Individual results may be fairly immediate, but getting enough back to provide a statistically reliable sample may take months.
And a second batch of slightly different data may be needed to verify the first lot. And again.
So it could take a year or more to get an actual result.

And then it depends on what "they" are researching.

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