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KAMasud

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Message 64274 - Posted: 7 Aug 2021, 11:58:56 UTC

There is a paradox to all this also. South Asia, which used to swelter at 45c/46c is going through a mild summer.
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Profile Dave Jackson
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Message 64275 - Posted: 7 Aug 2021, 13:36:34 UTC - in response to Message 64274.  

There is a paradox to all this also. South Asia, which used to swelter at 45c/46c is going through a mild summer.


Unpredictability is one of the major predictions from the climate change science.
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Jim1348

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Message 64276 - Posted: 7 Aug 2021, 13:37:10 UTC - in response to Message 64274.  

We are having a fairly mild summer in the eastern U.S. I don't think that will bring much comfort to the West.
There is no paradox at all. The heat has to go somewhere. It is the average that is rising, with variations around the mean.

Surely you studied that in your statistics course.
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Message 64278 - Posted: 7 Aug 2021, 14:57:37 UTC

Climate Change Is Hitting Farmers Hard (Scientific American) as insurance claims for crop losses are soaring in the US and now threaten to take a toll on the domestic agriculture sector and American taxpayers, who subsidize the federal insurance program
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Message 64279 - Posted: 7 Aug 2021, 15:07:51 UTC - in response to Message 64278.  

The real problems will come when the expected revenue from an acre of ground is less than the expected cost of planting (seed, fertilizer, equipment, etc.).
Then they won't plant at all.
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Les Bayliss
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Message 64281 - Posted: 7 Aug 2021, 15:52:01 UTC

And if the AMOC does collapse suddenly, soon, then the Northern Hemisphere will cool lots, and we'll be in a whole new ball game.
(Possibly one where you drop your bat and ball, and swim for home as fast as you can. :) )
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bozz4science

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Message 64286 - Posted: 8 Aug 2021, 10:22:48 UTC

North Korea: Thousands evacuated and homes destroyed by flooding, amid worsening food shortage (Sky News): Parts of North Hamgyong recorded more than 500mm of rain from Sunday through to Thursday. Meanwhile a serious heatwave and drought have already reduced the food supply in the country

Early Hurricane Lull Ending, With New Forecast for Up to 21 Storms (Bloomberg): Last year broke the record with 30 named storms in the Atlantic, and the 2021 season has already tallied an unusually high five so far, well ahead of normal pace of a normal year

This Is Why Even Scientists Underestimate Climate Change (Bloomberg): Climate science and economics are inherently conservative, and that may be a factor in Monday's highly-anticipated report from the UN-backed IPCC. Expect the IPCC to paint a sobering picture of what is to come. The steep costs of such a world are all too apparent, but tallying them is harder still.
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Message 64296 - Posted: 9 Aug 2021, 7:22:05 UTC
Last modified: 9 Aug 2021, 7:23:00 UTC

For anyone interested to watch the live coverage of the IPCC press conference today, here are your options:
- YouTube
- Facebook

Press conference is set to start at 10 am CEST
(Links taken directly from IPCC's latest tweet)
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Profile Dave Jackson
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Message 64299 - Posted: 9 Aug 2021, 10:14:16 UTC

Guardian coverage of IPPC statement.
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KAMasud

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Message 64309 - Posted: 10 Aug 2021, 5:43:10 UTC - in response to Message 64276.  

We are having a fairly mild summer in the eastern U.S. I don't think that will bring much comfort to the West.
There is no paradox at all. The heat has to go somewhere. It is the average that is rising, with variations around the mean.

Surely you studied that in your statistics course.

________________________

The paradox lies somewhere else. The heat has to go somewhere, agreed. The paradox lies in our skin colour. Light skin tones for cooler climates. Darker skin tones for hotter climates. O' Well! The darker skin tones can take the heat. The lighter skin tones take the hue of boiled lobsters.
Did the Statistics Course also cover the correlation of skin colours? I, do not remember.
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bozz4science

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Message 64315 - Posted: 10 Aug 2021, 8:49:24 UTC
Last modified: 10 Aug 2021, 8:51:32 UTC

While it is not a paradox in itself,
heat has to go somewhere,
I'd still argue that it might be difficult for some people to understand that climate change is not only about global warming, that global warming doesn't imply the same consequences everywhere, i.e. talking about a 1.5 degree scenario doesn't mean it's gonna get warmer by 1.5 degrees everywhere, and can highly differ on a regional level. Sadly, I do encounter many folks that still don't get these basics straight. Interestingly, that's where yesterday's IPCC assessment report improved over the last one by highlighting the implications of a globally changing climate at a regional level (albeit highly granular). See f.ex. pp. SPM-12, 21, 22 in IPCC's AR6 report (SPM: Summary for Policymakers). While you're there, shed a glance at SPM-23 that illustrates the projected occurrence of various extreme weather events!

To make it even more intuitive for people and policymakers alike to grasp the potential effects of climate change, they included regional fact sheets this time.

While the report incidentally was published at a time when many climate change driven events can be seen around the world, it remains to be seen whether this report can ignite the spark for a more ambitious "green" agenda at COP26...
However, hope is still there that the worst of the changes to come can yet be avoided (The Guardian).
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Jim1348

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Message 64320 - Posted: 10 Aug 2021, 14:00:55 UTC - in response to Message 64315.  

An additional problem is that even the changes may not be stable. Civilizations can adapt to long-term changes by migration; that is why humans left Africa, etc. But with wandering jet streams and ocean currents, even the migrations might not work as a long-term solution. This is an unprecedented situation. Even the pandemic looks easy by comparison. We know how to deal with that.
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Message 64328 - Posted: 11 Aug 2021, 9:19:27 UTC

Climate refugees might be an unfortunate reality in the near future Jim. Many people will only go through rebuilding their home and livelihood so many times before they flee towards regions with better living conditions. Once people starve due to food shortages, I reckon that we'll also start seeing mass migrations. Let's hope COP26 will take drastic actions to mitigate the most severe consequences of global warming that is yet to come.

Meanwhile, ...
Chile's record-breaking drought makes climate change 'very easy' to see (Reuters): A punishing, decade-long drought in Chile has gone from bad to worse due to a scorching July, a month which typically brings midwinter weather showering the capital Santiago in rain and snow. [...] But a lack of precipitation this year has left the towering and typically snowcapped Andes above the city mostly bare, reservoir levels low and farm fields parched.

Greece faces 'disaster of unprecedented proportions' as wildfires ravage the country (CNN): Greece is facing a "natural disaster of unprecedented proportions," as 586 wildfires burn in "all corners" of the country, according to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. [..] Sixty-three organized evacuations have taken place in the past few days, Mitsotakis said in a televised address on Monday.

More than 40 killed in Algeria wildfires, prime minister says (France24): Algeria joins a string of countries to be hit by major blazes in recent weeks, including Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Russia and the United States. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune tweeted his condolences for 25 soldiers who were killed as they rescued people in the areas of Bejaiea and Tizi Ouzou, the epicentre of the blazes.

‘Climate change is going to cost us’: How the US military is preparing for harsher environments (DefenseNews): “Climate change is going to cost us in resources and readiness,” Joe Bryan, senior climate adviser at the Pentagon, said during a July webinar. “The reality is that it already is.” [...] The Congressional Research Service found that the Department of Defense manages more than 1,700 global military installations on coastlines that could prove vulnerable to rises in sea level.
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KAMasud

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Message 64329 - Posted: 11 Aug 2021, 10:12:25 UTC

Monsoon Season is about over for Western South Asia. Still, waiting for rain. Can you believe it, Alexanders army came to a standstill during the Monsoons? Our rivers are running dry. The Indus river has become a stream. During the Monsoons, we plant corn, barley, etc. Not much left. Our wheat crop during winter is rain-fed, nothing. Mass migrations due to starvation is a strong possibility but to where? Every place on the Planet is in the same state.
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Message 64331 - Posted: 11 Aug 2021, 12:14:21 UTC - in response to Message 64329.  

It may be like those wandering elephants in China - people will just move to one new area after another.
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Message 64333 - Posted: 11 Aug 2021, 12:24:18 UTC - in response to Message 64331.  
Last modified: 11 Aug 2021, 12:25:02 UTC

In the end, people might have to keep moving and wandering around in pursuit of a suitable place to live if a) weather would become very unstable and result in local weather extremes that devastate entire regions that would necessitate to keep moving frequently, or b) local people/governments/nations would not welcome those climate refugees. I do hope however, that we will manage this crisis before ever moving beyond the 2.0 degree threshold and can thus limit most of these worrisome consequences. But, even with climate protection measurements implemented now at large scale (placing my hope on impulses from COP26), we will have to adapt fast to and protect against this new climate-induced weather reality.
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Message 64344 - Posted: 12 Aug 2021, 11:02:47 UTC
Last modified: 12 Aug 2021, 11:08:28 UTC

Highest recorded temperature of 48.8 C (119.8 F) in Europe apparently logged in Sicily (The Guardian): Reading at monitoring station in Syracuse unverified but comes amid heatwave in last few days and blazing wild fires. This heat record is one of a series of records that were set this summer around the globe.

Heatwave Scorches Mediterranean in Latest Sign of Climate Change Impacts (Bloomberg): “This is the Mediterranean, so summers are hot and dry, but this is unusually intense,” said Bob Stefanski, head of applied climate services at the World Meteorological Organization. “It’s a taste of things to come.” ... The areas most severely impacted in the future might be Spain, southern Italy, Greece, the Balkans and western Turkey. Meanwhile, on Tuesday a record temperature of 48.9° C (120.2 F) was recorded in Tunis, the capital of Tunisia.

Putin blames massive Siberian fires on climate change (Bellona): In a sign the Kremlin might be taking global warming more seriously, President Vladimir Putin has called the vast wildfires that have lashed Siberia this summer the work of climate change during a meeting of his cabinet last week.

Arctic Permafrost Make Climate Change? (Scientific American): Global warming is setting free carbon from life buried long ago in the Arctic’s frozen soils, but its impact on the climate crisis is unclear. However, it stores around 1.5 trillion metric tons of organic carbon, twice as much as Earth’s atmosphere currently holds.

New York Power Authority Employs Supercomputing for Climate Resilience (HPCWire): NYPA is working with Argonne National Laboratory in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy to collectively evaluate the NYPA’s comprehensive climate risk. Argonne will use its 6.9 Linpack petaflops Theta supercomputer to conduct state-of-the-art, hyperlocal climate and infrastructure modeling to project future climate impacts on scales as small as neighborhoods. This work will allow the NYPA to understand how its operations and service areas could be impacted by flooding, winds and storms up to 50 years into the future.
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Message 64351 - Posted: 13 Aug 2021, 11:00:21 UTC
Last modified: 13 Aug 2021, 11:04:31 UTC

Europe
Turkey floods kill 17 as country battles fresh disaster (The Guardian): Heavy rains and mudslides in northern regions come after devastating wildfires ravaged the south of the country. Although the black sea region is used to occasional floods, agriculture and forestry minister Bekir Pakdemirli said that Turkey is facing a disaster that we have not seen in 50 or 100 years from a meteorological point of view.

US
Climate change is drying out many part-time streams in the United States (Science): The drying trend in the US that is most evident in the SW and is continuously intensifying. A study has found that ephemeral streams across the continental United States have become less reliable over the past 40 years and that is bad news for fauna and flora as their reproduction and survival is linked to the availability of water, especially in deserts

Giant Infernos Blazing for Months Are the New Norm in California (Bloomberg): Due to longer and hotter summers that increase the risk of droughts, forest fires are now burning stronger and longer. Eight of the 10 biggest fires in California history have occurred in just the past four years, and several of those raged for months before they were fully contained, according information from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire.

California’s Dry Season Is Turning Into a Permanent State of Being (Bloomberg): How 3 forces drive California to an ever increasing arid climate that could result in permeant drought situation. Water rationing, strain on the power grid due to increased electricity demand for AC cooling and less productive agriculture are amongst the most obvious consequences

Overheated, Underprotected: Climate Change Is Killing U.S. Farmworkers (Bloomberg): Record heatwaves have caused fatalities for laborers who plant and harvest U.S. crops. A lack of federal standards and policies makes it difficult to protect these agricultural workers

U.S. Power Emissions Set to Surge Most in More Than 30 Years (Bloomberg): Power consumption is rising with economy recovering from pandemic and utilities are burning more coal after natural gas prices climb. However, levels won't rise back to pre-pandemic levels thanks to an 11% dive in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic

Asia
Thailand’s Oil Giant Is Going on a Green Spending Spree (Bloomberg): PTT which alone makes up roughly 10% of Thailand's economic output is suddenly in a rush to transition to a more sustainable growth path in anticipation of diminishing demand for fossil fuels. Huge investments and acquisitions, both in Thailand and abroad, will drive this transition towards renewables, energy storage, power trading and EVs and increase its global footprint in India, Vietnam and Europe

China’s Green Ambitions Aren’t Halting New Coal and Steel Plans (Bloomberg): While China does plan to become carbon-free in 2060 and the rate of emission growth slowed, the massive investments in renewables come amidst the announcement of the planned construction of 43 new coal-fired generators in 2021 that would result in an additional 150 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year

General
Greenhouse gas emissions must peak within 4 years, says leaked UN report (The Guardian): Group of scientists release draft IPCC report as they fear it will be watered down by governments. The stark warning includes climate breakdown through a series of feedback loops if this goal is not met
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Message 64367 - Posted: 16 Aug 2021, 13:34:29 UTC

Asia
Japan floods: death toll grows as rain triggers fresh landslides (The Guardian): Heavy rains across south-western Japan during last week brought as much as 1 m of rain (1000 mm or 40 in) resulting in disruptive mudslides and flooding

Russia expands state of emergency over wildfires in Far East (Euronews): Wildfires are still blazing in Siberia and are now moving into the Yakutia region

US
Parts of the US are getting dangerously hot. Yet Americans are moving the wrong way (The Guardian): As the climate changes, census data shows that Americans are shifting from safer areas of the US to the regions most at risk of heating and flooding. The Census Bureau’s new map of the last decade’s population trends shows big growth in the west and on the coasts – and declines in the inland east coast and Great Lakes region.

Thousands Evacuate as Wildfires Ravage Utah and Northern California (NYT): Firefighters battled the Dixie Fire in California and a new fire in Parleys Canyon in Utah as searing temperatures continued to bake the western United States. Dixie Fire is now the largest single-origin wildfire in California history that firefighters have now battled for more than a month. Still, many wildfires rage across the Western US and call for large scale evacuations in Utah and California.

Global
July was world’s hottest month ever recorded, US scientists confirm (The Guardian): The global land and ocean surface temperature last month was one degree Celsius, 0.9C (1.6F), hotter than the 20th-century average of 15.8C (60.4F), making it the hottest month since modern record keeping began 142 years ago. Europe’s hottest ever recorded temperature was reportedly set in Sicily on Wednesday, where it reached a roasting 48.8C (119.8F).

If your coffee's going downhill, blame climate change (Reuters): Arabica, which accounts for about 60% of the world's coffee, is generally sweeter with more variation in flavour, and can be worth more than twice as much as robusta coffee. Robusta is said to be more robust to higher temperatures and generally offers higher yields. With the world's largest coffee producer Brazil (40% globally) increasingly shifting away from Arabica, the flavor of the world's coffee will be gradually altered as more of the harsher and more caffeine-charged robusta variety, widely used to make instant coffee, makes its way into the pricier ground blends currently dominated by arabica
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Message 64370 - Posted: 17 Aug 2021, 8:43:40 UTC

Suddenly, the mountain ranges and highlands have started to look good.
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