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Message 39417 - Posted: 30 Mar 2010, 14:06:36 UTC

Sorry for more bad news. I had another model crash on me last night with exit status 22. No fault of my own here.

BUFFIN: Read Failed: No such file or directory
BUFFIN: C I/O Error feof - Unit 60 - Return code = 1

... (repeats)



Sorry, too many model crashes! :-(
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Message 39425 - Posted: 30 Mar 2010, 22:47:03 UTC

Well I started 3 FAMOUS models last weekend and one 11387053 crashed with the usual negative pressure. But the other two, 11387068 (famous_r153_1399_200_006632420_2) and 11390909 (famous_r152_1199_200_006632419_5) , completed apparently satisfactorily this evening. So some do finish OK.
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Message 39426 - Posted: 31 Mar 2010, 4:12:24 UTC

I just lost another FAMOUS model. That is 2 out of 3. They really need to do something about the stability other wise it seems to just be a waste of computer cycles to run them.

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Message 39429 - Posted: 31 Mar 2010, 11:42:39 UTC - in response to Message 39426.  

The following warning about this early stage of the FAMOUS experiment has just been added to the Millennium experiment with FAMOUS page:
The Millennium/Famous experiment uses a radically new way to run perturbed atmosphere-ocean coupled models without dynamic flux adjustments. Therefore, we expect many models to run away quickly from realistic climatic conditions, especially when we perturbed the internal parameters of the model. The main test of such models are performed for the \"spin-up\" period labelled as 599-799 AD. For this period, we don\'t use time-evolving external forcing data. We simply keep them constant to see how each model adjusts to its own new equilibrium. However, since some of our perturbations are fairly strong, many models will simply run away!

Also, we use several extreme forcing scenarios. For example, the largest volcanic eruptions in the last Millennium are estimated to be several times larger than the Pinatubo eruption in 1991. Moreover, to cover the full range of uncertainty in the historical volcanic eruption data, we even try the case with 3 times the best estimate of volcanic forcing.

Once we find a variety of not-outrageous models, we will only use them to run more realistic simulations from 800 AD towards near future. Such runs still include the setup with the extreme scenarios, and some of the models that survived the spin-up period will probably go wild. We also noticed that the current Famous model is perhaps somewhat less stable than other models we have been using. In any event, we compare model\'s outputs with observational data and evaluate the goodness of each model run. The goodness measure will be used to illustrate the range of plausible future.

"The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world that it leaves to its children." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer
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Message boards : Number crunching : FAMOUS CRASH