Question: The severe weather situation is a broader question that applies to many parts of the world. I know that where I live near New York City any odd weather tends to be blamed on global warming.

I realize that the HADAM3P simulation is studying that question for severe weather in the UK and surrounding region. Might the results at least be an indication in other parts of the world whether global warming may be a cause for unusual/severe whether? Or does each region of the world need to be modeled and studied separately to obtain that answer?

Just curious. Thanks!

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Regards,
Bob P.

Suggest that you check out the science pages at the UK Met Office.

The PRECIS regional model PRECIS gives much higher local resolution.

Regional models for Pacific North West (USA) and South Africa are being tested on the beta site.

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The current Validation and Attribution Experiment using our HadAM3P models is described here. Its aim is to attempt to provide and validate a method for attributing particular extreme weather events to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. It obviously will never attribute all extreme events everywhere to a particular cause (increased greenhouse gas emissions) - only the specific event being studied. We mustn\'t try to generalise the future findings of this experiment beyond what it has been designed to test.

However, if the experiment is successful it should provide a fairly quick and easy method to test whether particular events in other locations were caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions. But to be fairly certain one would still need to to run an ensemble (not necessarily with many members) for many events in many locations until it became clear what proportion of the events could be attributed to increased emissions. One might then be able to assign a % probability that particular events anywhere could be attributed to increased emissions. It might turn out that some types of event could regularly be attributed to this cause, but not others.

I think we\'re still quite a long way off being able to generalise the findings of CPDN\'s attribution studies.

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