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Unrealistic temperature prediction

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Alex Plantema

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Message 27163 - Posted: 4 Mar 2007, 12:31:57 UTC

In this graph the predicted global mean surface air temperature seems to be quite unrealistic. Is it useful to continue with this work unit?
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Profile Iain Inglis

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Message 27164 - Posted: 4 Mar 2007, 13:10:02 UTC
Last modified: 4 Mar 2007, 13:10:46 UTC

That is unusual! The project is trying to see the effects of lots of parameter combinations. Not all of them will be realistic, but they all contribute to an understanding of the simulation\'s sensitivity to changes. The advice from the project is, I think, to continue with every model as long as possible.

It will be interesting to see whether this particular model will be able to get all the way to 2080.
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Les Bayliss
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Message 27166 - Posted: 4 Mar 2007, 16:03:05 UTC

Yes, please continue.
Models like yours are the ones that the researchers find the most interesting, because it tells them a lot about the combination of values being used for that model.


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Alex Plantema

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Message 27167 - Posted: 4 Mar 2007, 16:56:03 UTC

Ok, I\'ll keep it running. We\'ll see what happens. Thanks.
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Message 27169 - Posted: 4 Mar 2007, 17:49:21 UTC

It\'s \"only\" 5C degrees above its start point, within the range of possibility, and the curve is flattening. It will be interesting to see the finished curve.

"We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.
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Alex Plantema

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Message 28399 - Posted: 4 May 2007, 11:27:26 UTC

It has about the same temperature graph as this one: http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?resultid=6450435. Both crashed when the temperature reached 21 degrees, with the same error message: \"Model crashed: umshell1.f: ATM_DYN : NEGATIVE THETA DETECTED.\"

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Profile MikeMarsUK
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Message 28405 - Posted: 4 May 2007, 14:02:00 UTC


Good work, thanks. These extreme models are useful to find the boundaries of viable models vs. nonviable models.
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