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New project launch tomorrow: Weather@home 2014: the causes of the UK winter floods

New project launch tomorrow: Weather@home 2014: the causes of the UK winter floods

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Profile Hannah Rowlands

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Message 48246 - Posted: 3 Mar 2014, 12:25:35 UTC

First of all, hello! My name is Hannah Rowlands and I've just started as the new (part-time) climateprediction.net Communications Officer.

So, we're about to launch a new weather@home project looking at the link between the recent UK winter flooding and climate change.

You can read about the project on the website.

What's really exciting about this project is that it's being covered by the Guardian, and we're planning to post a real-time plot of results, day by day, as they come in.

I'll post a link to the Guardian article tomorrow.

In the meantime, get ready for some new model runs coming online tomorrow.
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Profile Greg van Paassen

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Message 48248 - Posted: 3 Mar 2014, 12:49:37 UTC - in response to Message 48246.  

Welcome to the forums, Hannah!

It looks like the new models are being issued already. My machine has picked up four.
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Profile Hannah Rowlands

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Message 48249 - Posted: 3 Mar 2014, 13:01:52 UTC - in response to Message 48248.  

Thanks for the welcome!

Yes, I think they've started sending them out today, ahead of press coverage tomorrow, just in case there were any problems with them...

Cheers,
Hannah
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Profile JohnofWem
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Message 48263 - Posted: 3 Mar 2014, 23:59:26 UTC

Finally some new models!! I have received only one, presumably returned, model in the last 4 months and now I have just noticed 9 downloaded in the last 3 days, 5 of which are these new ones.

No flooding here on the English Welsh border and only one bad gale which destroyed our poly-tunnel skin but it was nearly due for replacement anyway. What I have found unusual is that we have had only three frosty nights all winter and two of those were last night and tonight. We still have two roses flowering from last year; that is unprecedented in the 40 years we have been here.


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Profile Dave Jackson
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Message 48268 - Posted: 4 Mar 2014, 7:45:13 UTC - in response to Message 48263.  

we have had only three frosty nights all winter


I think last night was only our third and all three have been very mild frosts. My bees certainly think the weather is strange for the time of year as they were collecting pollen in January!
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Ingleside

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Message 48270 - Posted: 4 Mar 2014, 8:04:26 UTC - in response to Message 48246.  
Last modified: 4 Mar 2014, 8:06:08 UTC

Welcome to the forums. :)

edit - seems the homepage now has been fixed.
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Profile Iain Inglis
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Message 48275 - Posted: 4 Mar 2014, 13:44:14 UTC - in response to Message 48270.  

... edit - seems the homepage now has been fixed.

Gone again. I was checking the links from the on-line Graun article earlier and all the top-level CPDN pages worked fine. However, the weather-at-home pages had changed since yesterday, so perhaps whatever content management system CPDN uses disables the Web site pages when it's updating. In which case it could be a little chattier than displaying a page with only the word "error" on it.
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Profile Hannah Rowlands

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Message 48277 - Posted: 4 Mar 2014, 16:40:55 UTC

We're pleased to see loads of models getting gobbled up by people's computers, new participants and long-timers alike.

Thanks again to everyone for taking part and letting us run our models on your computers!

Cheers,
Hannah
---
Hannah Rowlands
CPDN Communications Officer
Website: www.climateprediction.net
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CPDN_BOINC
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Profile Iain Inglis
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Message 48286 - Posted: 5 Mar 2014, 10:03:38 UTC
Last modified: 24 Mar 2014, 16:45:37 UTC

My first two models have completed and it will be interesting to see how the live update plot develops.

The explanation of the plot leaves me a little confused, however. Each dot on the plot represents a result from a user, with the Y-value being the accumulated rain over the simulation period and the X-value being the return probability. But a single model, unless it is itself an ensemble (e.g. a 'Monte Carlo' model), cannot determine a probability: in Monte Carlo terms each model is a 'trial' and you can't get a probability from one trial.

There's clearly something I'm missing in the explanation.

[Edit: What I'm missing is that the individual models are ranked within the ensemble and allocated the 1/n Monte Carlo probability. I had wrongly assumed the return probability was calculated by some other means.]
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Profile Dave Jackson
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Message 48287 - Posted: 5 Mar 2014, 11:45:29 UTC

My first two models have completed


It is clearly time for me to think about upgrading!
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Profile JIM

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Message 48291 - Posted: 5 Mar 2014, 16:42:42 UTC - in response to Message 48263.  


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Message 48293 - Posted: 5 Mar 2014, 17:21:59 UTC - in response to Message 48291.  


I'm a volunteer and my views are my own.
News and Announcements and FAQ
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DJStarfox

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Message 48305 - Posted: 6 Mar 2014, 3:01:35 UTC - in response to Message 48246.  
Last modified: 6 Mar 2014, 3:03:18 UTC

On the preferences page, what type do these new weather@home models belong to? I have HadCM and HadAM3 selected, iirc.

Edit: NM. I think I found it: HadAMP3_EU
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Message 48309 - Posted: 6 Mar 2014, 17:57:44 UTC

I have just been listing the the BBC Radio 4 'Inside Science' program. On this was a short mention of this new project.
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Christine

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Message 48422 - Posted: 17 Mar 2014, 19:23:33 UTC - in response to Message 48421.  

Hannah, I have recently joined, my first model is 85% through. Can you tell me if there is anyone else in the Channel Islands (Jersey in particular) taking part? I note that the Isle of Man is mentioned in the list of countries taking part (7 people) but no mention of the Channel Islands. It would be nice if you could put me/us on the list, even though we are a part of the British Isles (but not the United Kingdom).

There is a lot to absorb as a beginner, so it would be nice to work through it with someone in real life.
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Profile Dave Jackson
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Message 48423 - Posted: 17 Mar 2014, 22:11:56 UTC - in response to Message 48422.  

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Message 48482 - Posted: 21 Mar 2014, 2:32:59 UTC


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