climateprediction.net home page
THE WORLD IN 2199

THE WORLD IN 2199

Message boards : Cafe CPDN : THE WORLD IN 2199
Message board moderation

To post messages, you must log in.

AuthorMessage
Profile JIM

Send message
Joined: 31 Dec 07
Posts: 1124
Credit: 20,460,788
RAC: 0
Message 39948 - Posted: 15 Jun 2010, 20:20:00 UTC

The just finished one of the new FAMOUS WU’s. Its end date was 1/12/2199. This is more than a century further into the future than any of the other CPDN models that I have ever run. Is this the as far into future as the FAMOUS models go, or is do they go further?

It also makes me wonder what the World will be like in 189 years. Will they have solved this problem and be living in a World of stable climate and nearly limitless cheap energy from some clean technology not yet invented such as hydrogen fusion or maybe even solar power satellites in orbit around the Earth. Is this beautiful, clean “Star Trek” future even possible?

Or, will they have failed to deal effectively with this problem and be living in a desperately degraded World. A World caught in the throws of massive run-away climate change. A World were sea level rises a couple of inches every year and all coastal cities cower behind dikes, knowing that it is just a matter of time before the sea wins and they will have to be abandoned. In this world Venice and New Orleans and the entire nation of Bangladesh are just distant memories.

If they are going to avoid this future then we had better start to dealing with this problem much more effectively with the problem of human induced climate change than we are. Before we reach a climate tipping point and we loose the power to control it.

ID: 39948 · Report as offensive     Reply Quote
Profile mo.v
Volunteer moderator
Avatar

Send message
Joined: 29 Sep 04
Posts: 2363
Credit: 14,310,251
RAC: 0
Message 39949 - Posted: 16 Jun 2010, 0:16:10 UTC

As far as I know this is as far into the future as FAMOUS models will go. Far enough because, as you say, humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere, but whether we curb this behaviour will probably have a bigger effect on future climate than anything else. And at the moment nobody knows to what extent we'll make the necessary changes.

There are signs that a number of richer countries, unwilling to make serious efforts to cut carbon emissions in case others make smaller sacrifices and they lose their position in the global battle for wealth and power, are increasingly looking towards geoengineering as a possible solution.

In my view, if this approach is widely adopted it risks making the situation only rather less worse than might otherwise be the case.


Cpdn news
ID: 39949 · Report as offensive     Reply Quote
Profile tullio

Send message
Joined: 6 Aug 04
Posts: 264
Credit: 965,476
RAC: 0
Message 39953 - Posted: 17 Jun 2010, 5:44:56 UTC

There are still people denying any human cause for global warming. It is sufficient to go to theregister.co.uk to read such opinions. Unfortunately, such blunders as made by the IPCC on Himalaya glaciers do nothing but help them to spread such opinion.
Tullio
ID: 39953 · Report as offensive     Reply Quote
Profile mo.v
Volunteer moderator
Avatar

Send message
Joined: 29 Sep 04
Posts: 2363
Credit: 14,310,251
RAC: 0
Message 39954 - Posted: 17 Jun 2010, 9:40:52 UTC
Last modified: 17 Jun 2010, 9:41:15 UTC

If more of us had read the whole IPCC report rather than just, like me, the summary, this sort of blunder would have been spotted earlier.
Cpdn news
ID: 39954 · Report as offensive     Reply Quote

Message boards : Cafe CPDN : THE WORLD IN 2199

©2020 climateprediction.net