Hi

The coupled models will be 50 yrs long, one single phase each. Hindcast - 1950 to 2000, forecast - 2000 to 2050.

It\'ll sort out the stable PC\'s OK but I would have thought it will also be a severe test for HadCM3..

Starting in 1950, I wonder if even the best matches of hindcast will pick out the Globally cold years such as 1964, the hot ones such as 1998 or an even harder test, more locally pick out the notables such as the NH winter of 1963 or the European hot summer of 1976 and no doubt similar local notables in other parts of the World.

I would have thought that there would have to be some good resemblance to this if the forecast results are going to be sold to the skeptics in business and various Countries Govts.

An interesting stage of the experiment, it will most certainly be for for more than one reason.

Pete

(This is surely documented elsewhere but I was too lazy to search for it.)

Well, now that you wrote it ... I added what you said to the Wiki. as a more in-depth explanation. Though I did some minor surgery to remove abbreviations per my style ... I know it makes the writing \"fatter\", but, we are writing for everyone and many people, like me, born and raised in America, only have experience with English as a second language.

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According to my calc, SC should grand (6805.26/3*5)*1.7=19281.57 credit - is it correct?

(This is surely documented elsewhere but I was too lazy to search for it.)

Well, now that you wrote it ... I added what you said to the Wiki. as a more in-depth explanation. Though I did some minor surgery to remove abbreviations per my style ... I know it makes the writing \"fatter\", but, we are writing for everyone and many people, like me, born and raised in America, only have experience with English as a second language.

Thanks, Paul.

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"We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

I edited on the Wiki from

Currents flow but there is no turn-over (vertical motion) in ocean calculations.

to

The slab can act as a heat source or sink which can to some extent simulate the effect of currents flowing. However, there isn\'t any real current nor turn-over (vertical motion) in the slab oceans so while a slab model can simulate a steady current it cannot simulate a dynamic change.

I hope that is more accurate/informative.

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With that containing the ocien currents it would be interesting if some included what would happen if enoughf of the Greenland ice sheet melted and stopped the North Atlantic Convayer (Galf Streem). But that would have to include Currents turn-over, wow would that be a long one.

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Keep on crunching Pizza@Home

With that containing the ocien currents it would be interesting if some included what would happen if enoughf of the Greenland ice sheet melted and stopped the North Atlantic Convayer (Galf Streem).

There was a simplified version of that, run in the classic version of the slab model last year.

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Hi

With that containing the ocien currents it would be interesting if some included what would happen if enoughf of the Greenland ice sheet melted and stopped the North Atlantic Convayer (Galf Streem). But that would have to include Currents turn-over, wow would that be a long one.

Since, apparently, some (but not all) of the supercomputer runs have predicted this then my guess is that it will be inevitable that some CPDN coupled forecast runs will produce the THC slow/shutdown scenario. It will all depend on the parameters used. What will be interesting though is the proportion of \'good\' (based on the hindcast matching with reality) sets that model it, and having done so, what hypothetical climate changes follow on in any model that does show it.

Pete

Thanks, Paul.

You are welcome ...

And Chris, thanks for tidying up after us ...

Folks, you should give Chris a good solid pat on the back as he is the one that has made the CPDN section of the Wiki the solid piece of work that it is ...

For the moment, the CPDN section is the \"class\" of the site and what I wish I could do for all projects.

In all seriousness, an awful lot of what is in the Wiki is nothing more than what I can steal, um, I mean research from the message boards. I just collect it and try to make it read consistently. Though, it is fun to learn...

AND, one of these weeks I am going to take a week off and read ALL of what Chris has written ... cover to cover ...

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Since, apparently, some (but not all) of the supercomputer runs have predicted this

Here are a couple of link that seem to me to suggest most models show only a gradual slowdown so that global warming dominates the effects. And/Or, to get a collapse requires unrealistically large perturbations:


<a href=\"http://mustelid.blogspot.com/2005/08/new-thc-paper.html#comments\">stoat</a>

<a href=\"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VPS-
4F8TG3K-1&_user=10&_handle=V-WA-A-W-AA-MsSAYVA-UUA-U-AAWDVZCCUY-AAWCUVZBUY-
BUUAVUYWE-AA-U&_fmt=summary&_coverDate=12%2F31%
2F2006&_rdoc=8&_orig=browse&_srch=%23toc%236214%232006%23999889998%23599365!
&_cdi=6214&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=b82d b2c7b543cbd001e6309561ff4282\">Sciencedirect</a>

Is the science showing that it isn\'t really a problem (though more work may well be sensible)?

Is my interpretation different to yours? Have I misunderstood?


Edit
The sciencedirect link is too long to get it to work as a link. So go to stoat and click on the us in comment 1.

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Hi

I was taking my information from here, here and here.

Taking those and your refs also, it is a very complex issue. No doubt the rate of melting of fresh water ice needs to be accounted for and also over what timescale it may enter the seas. If the melting Arctic Ice and Greenland glaciers slowly trickle into the wider open waters, then the effect may be different to if the fresh water is dammed back until it reaches a \'breakout\' point at which a mass of fresh water suddenly \'floods\' the sea surface. another point, is there even enough water locked up in the Greenland glaciers to put sufficient fresh water into the system? The Younger Dryas with which it is compared, as far as I understand, involved a much wider area of melting ice that Greenland.

pete

With that containing the ocien currents it would be interesting if some included what would happen if enoughf of the Greenland ice sheet melted and stopped the North Atlantic Convayer (Galf Streem).

There was a simplified version of that, run in the classic version of the slab model last year.

I missed that when going through the pages of the web site, thank you for the link.

After the coupled models are run in 2006 will anyone be ready for 100 year models to really test out there systems? I think a good part of the systems would not be ready, or there owners not want to put that long into one model. But just think of all the things that could be added into the predictions if they were designed to run a lot longer.

Ray

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Keep on crunching Pizza@Home

After the coupled models are run in 2006 will anyone be ready for 100 year models to really test out there systems? I think a good part of the systems would not be ready, or there owners not want to put that long into one model. But just think of all the things that could be added into the predictions if they were designed to run a lot longer.

Thinking about this for a few minutes, I was wondering if this isn\'t fesible for some computers (the two I use should be fine). What if the models were broke into seperate states. You work on say the first 25 year, return the result, and get the next 25 year. If someone\'s machine fails to return the first part, it can go to a new person quicker than if the whole hundred is done in a single swoop.

I know this is a lot of keeping track of things. Also as the first 25 are anaylized, and the 2nd is being processed, the 3rd could be built off what is known already, and maybe some good changes could come out of it. Same with the 4th after the 2nd is returned.

It\'s thinking a little outside the box, but gives a little more flexibility in the models, and maybe more information available to the team.

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